Sigmoid curve

The sigmoid curve is a visual model of a life cycle: slow formation, accelerating performance, maturity and eventual decline. Managers can apply it narrowly to a team or more broadly to an organisation. Its central lesson is to begin the next period of development before the present one has exhausted its energy.

When to use it

Use the sigmoid curve to judge when a team needs renewal, either to extend strong performance or to prevent an emerging decline.

Origins

Charles Handy popularised the sigmoid curve as a way to think about organisational and personal renewal. The underlying S-shaped pattern also appears in many accounts of growth and development. Handy’s managerial insight was that a successful second curve must usually begin before the first curve has visibly failed.

What it is

Imagine following a business from left to right across the curve. At A, the organisation has only just been established. It then invests money and energy in products, controls and marketing while producing little visible return at B. As marketing takes effect and products begin to sell, performance develops its own momentum and rises toward C. Eventually, sales weaken, systems age and performance flattens at D before declining toward E. The Extended Tuckman teamwork theory traces a comparable pattern in team development.

Points C and E deserve particular attention.

Waiting until E may feel prudent because nothing appears broken at C. By E, however, morale and energy may already be deteriorating and cash flow may be under pressure. Renewal is therefore best initiated around C, while the organisation still possesses the capacity to absorb disruption and establish another curve.

A change begun at C will still cause a temporary disturbance, and results may dip before the new curve rises. If the same intervention begins only at E, performance can fall much further before recovery starts, making the return to high performance substantially harder.

The model is particularly useful for managing teams.