Hype cycle

Gartner introduced the Hype Cycle in 1995 as a visual account of how expectations surrounding an emerging technology can change. The curve moves from an initial trigger and excessive enthusiasm through disappointment toward more grounded learning and productive use. Although developed by an IT research and advisory firm, the narrative is often applied to technologies and innovations beyond information technology.

When to use it

Use a Hype Cycle to structure discussion about an emerging technology’s evidence, maturity, uncertainty and possible timing. It can inform the scale and type of learning investment, but it cannot by itself predict returns or determine when to buy.

The framework can also place several innovations in a common conversation when prioritising R&D or business-development work. Comparisons remain qualitative: different technologies may have different markets, risks, evidence standards and adoption mechanisms even when shown at similar positions.

Origins

Research and advisory firm Gartner introduced the Hype Cycle in 1995. The model became one of the firm’s recurring research formats for representing the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications. Its familiar curve synthesises analyst judgement and evidence; it is not a measured natural law or a literal cycle.

What it is

The Hype Cycle is a qualitative model of changing expectations around an innovation. Its five stages are the innovation trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment and plateau of productivity. The vertical curve should be read as visibility or expectations rather than technical performance, while time runs horizontally. A labelled position is therefore an analytical judgement, not a calculated forecast.