Strategy
Statistical methods of demand forecasting
A practical introduction to trend projection, regression and indicator-based forecasting for strengthening demand analysis.
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Statistical methods of demand forecasting vs Survey methods of demand forecasting
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Survey methods of demand forecasting
Four ways to add customer, salesforce, expert or market-test evidence to a demand forecast.
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Use this when.
Use statistical methods when the HOOF approach would benefit from stronger evidence, particularly when estimating historical growth or testing the relationship between demand and an external driver.
Use one or more methods when informed external or frontline judgement would strengthen the The HOOF approach to demand forecasting.
Extracted signals
Strengths, limits, and pitfalls.
Statistical methods of demand forecasting
- Begin with a causal question and a clean historical series. A sophisticated calculation cannot rescue an incoherent market boundary or unreliable input data.
- A trend line summarises the direction of observations plotted over time:
- Set out annual market demand data.
Watch for
- Do not assume that a past trend, regression or indicator relationship will continue. State the mechanism, test alternative drivers and make structural change explicit.
Survey methods of demand forecasting
- Combine methods with different biases—for example, customer intention, salesforce knowledge and a small behavioural pilot—and investigate why their estimates disagree.
- Select a representative group from each major product/market segment and ask about intended total purchases from all suppliers over the next 12 and 24 months. The questions can accompany a broader interview about purchasing criteria and comparative supplier performance, as shown in Figure B.1.
- Purchasing contacts may not know their organisation’s future sales or production plans and may refer the interviewer to sales colleagues. The firm may have a weaker relationship with those people, limiting the evidence. A separate survey of customer sales teams can therefore cost more than it contributes.
Watch for
- Do not convert opinion into apparent certainty. Every method depends on who was asked, what they know, incentives, wording and whether stated intention becomes behaviour.
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