Innovation
Diffusion model
In 1969, Frank Bass introduced his diffusion model, or innovation adaptation model.
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Diffusion model vs Diffusion of innovation
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Innovation
Diffusion of innovation
Launch new products and services.
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Use this when.
Use the Bass model when forecasting adoption, sales or installed base growth for a genuinely new product, technology or service with limited historical demand data. It can support production, capacity and launch planning.
Use it to plan the launch and growth of new products or services.
Extracted signals
Strengths, limits, and pitfalls.
Diffusion model
- Treat market potential as an assumption to test, not a fact. Re estimate p , q and the potential market as real adoption data arrive, and show decision makers how sensitive capacity or revenue plans are to each input.
- Let X be the market potential and Y the cumulative number of adopters. The remaining market is X − Y . The probability of adoption combines independent influence, p , with imitation proportional to prior adoption, qY . In the simplified form used here, new adopters N are:
- | P | = | proportion who will adopt on their own |
Watch for
- Do not confuse the aggregate innovation and imitation effects with fixed personality types. Adoption depends on the offer, price, infrastructure, communication network and social context, and the market potential may change over time.
Diffusion of innovation
- Match the launch to the next adopter group. Early users may respond to novelty and possibility; the mainstream usually needs a complete solution, trusted references, low switching risk and clear economic value.
- First decide whether the offer is a meaningful innovation for the customer, not merely old content in new packaging. Then estimate where target customers sit on the adoption spectrum and identify the evidence, risk reduction and support each group needs.
- A European paper merchant applied the model while testing service innovations with printers. Proposed offers included rapid or night time delivery, timed delivery, consignment stock, additional products and advisory services. The survey also asked respondents to choose a neutral statement describing their approach to new technology:
Watch for
- Do not treat trial as sustained adoption or adopter categories as fixed identities. Measure continued use, context and switching behaviour, and revise the diffusion plan when the innovation or social system changes.
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