Marketing
Demand forecasting
Demand forecasting is an area of predictive analytics that seeks to estimate the quantity of a product or service your consumers are likely to buy.
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Demand forecasting vs Survey methods of demand forecasting
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Survey methods of demand forecasting
Four ways to add customer, salesforce, expert or market-test evidence to a demand forecast.
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Use this when.
How many units of each product may sell in the coming months?
Use one or more methods when informed external or frontline judgement would strengthen the The HOOF approach to demand forecasting.
Extracted signals
Strengths, limits, and pitfalls.
Demand forecasting
- Measure forecast error by product, location and horizon, then investigate bias separately from random variation. Clean, timely data are essential, but a disciplined feedback loop—forecast, observe, diagnose and update—is what improves planning over time.
- Past sales are only one signal. Search activity, product discussions, reviews, social text, price, distribution and test market results may improve the estimate, especially for changing or new categories. Google Trends can reveal shifts in attention, but attention is not identical to purchase demand and must be validated against actual outcomes.
Watch for
- Do not mistake sales for unconstrained demand. A promotion can create a temporary spike, while a stock out can hide purchases customers wanted to make. Record price, promotion, availability, weather and seasonal effects so that one off or constrained observations are not projected as the normal future.
Survey methods of demand forecasting
- Combine methods with different biases—for example, customer intention, salesforce knowledge and a small behavioural pilot—and investigate why their estimates disagree.
- Select a representative group from each major product/market segment and ask about intended total purchases from all suppliers over the next 12 and 24 months. The questions can accompany a broader interview about purchasing criteria and comparative supplier performance, as shown in Figure B.1.
- Purchasing contacts may not know their organisation’s future sales or production plans and may refer the interviewer to sales colleagues. The firm may have a weaker relationship with those people, limiting the evidence. A separate survey of customer sales teams can therefore cost more than it contributes.
Watch for
- Do not convert opinion into apparent certainty. Every method depends on who was asked, what they know, incentives, wording and whether stated intention becomes behaviour.
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